Landslide Metaphor
As the rain continues to fall, the probability of a gradual landslide increases.
When and where it will occur is not clearly foreseeable.
Small landslides, groundwater eruptions, and other "increasing signs of danger" can sometimes be felt.
When and where this will occur is not clearly foreseeable.
Short time between the appearance of observable signs and the development of a major disaster
Observable signs" vary depending on the cost of observation.
For example, I think that if sensors that show displacement in millimeters are buried at one-meter intervals, it would be possible to predict the occurrence of a landslide five seconds later.
The rate of exponential development is too fast for the cost of prevention to be worth it.
relevance
avalanche metaphor.
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